My Opinion On Gay Marriage

The proposed Constitutional Amendment to ban it won't pass. There isn't presently enough support for it. 67% of both the House and Senate, plus ratification in 38 states, is no easy task to accomplish.

Bush would be better off encouraging and signing a federal law banning gay marriage. He could easily get majorities in both Houses for this, and that would reassure his conservative base in an election year.

Then, if the US Supreme Court ever dared to declare this federal law Unconstitutional, Bush may be able to ride the wave of populist outrage to quickly push an Amendment through.

But not now. If the Amendment is voted down, it will be a huge (and counter-productive) defeat for Bush. Gay voters who would normally support Bush will either stay at home or defect to the Democrat nominee. And the hopes of an Amendment to ban gay marriage will disappear.

In the long run, barring an Amendment, gay marriage will become law. The courts like the idea, as do younger voters. The only firewall is an Amendment. I support such an Amendment. Just not now...

Bush v. Kerry: 2004

My current guess:

Alabama Bush
Alaska Bush
Arizona Bush
Arkansas Bush
CA Kerry
Colorado Bush
CT Kerry
Delaware Kerry
FL Bush
GA Bush
Hawaii Kerry
Idaho Bush
Illinois Kerry
Indiana Bush
Iowa Kerry
Kansas Bush
Kentucky Bush
Louisiana Bush
ME Kerry
Maryland Kerry
Mass Kerry
MI Kerry
MN Kerry
MS Bush
Missouri Bush
Montana Bush
NE Bush
Nevada Kerry
NH Kerry
NJ Kerry
NM Kerry
NY Kerry
NC Bush
ND Bush
Ohio Bush
Oklahoma Bush
Oregon Kerry
Penn Kerry
RI Kerry
SC Bush
SD Bush
TN Bush
Texas Bush
Utah Bush
Vermont Kerry
VA Bush
WA Kerry
WV Bush
Wisconsin Kerry
WY Bush
DC Kerry

Bush wins 28 states and the popular vote...

Kerry wins 22 states and DC...

This leads to a 269-269 tie in the EC. Check for yourself.

The HoR and Senate bring back Bush-Cheney for another term. The leftists go nuts.

Fun!

NH Predictions!

Kerry - 33%

Dean - 27%

Edwards - 18%

Clark - 12%

Lieberman - 8%

Kook-Sin-Itch - 2%

Sharpton - under 1%

Lieberman drops out and doesn't endorse anyone. Sharpton makes some comment about how Iowa and NH voters are all "crackers" anyway, and things will go different for him in SC. Clark's campaign begins a slow collapse. Though Kerry wins, he gets slightly less than one-third of the vote and it is spun as a loss. Dean claims the title of "Doctor Comeback!" and Edwards continues to build momentum...

I Suck

ACTUAL IOWA RESULTS:

Kerry - Winner

Edwards - Fairly close 2nd

Dean - Distant 3rd

Gephardt - Distant 4th, dropped out

Kucinich - 5th, with a tiny percentage

New Hampshire is next. The latest polls there can be found here.

Gephardt is done. Lieberman will drop out soon. Kerry will eat into Clark's support. Edwards will surge. Dean needs to win in NH to remain viable.

Super Bowl Prediction

Pats 23, Panthers 20.

FINAL IOWA PREDICTION

Winner: Gephardt

Close 2nd: Dean

Close 3rd: Kerry

Sorta-close 4th: Edwards

Surprise 5th: Dennis Kucinich (single-digits, of course)

NEW NFL PREDICTIONS

Okay, so the Packers won't be in it...

AFC - If the weather is relatively nice, the Colts will win a high-scoring battle to the finish: 31-27. If the weather is sloppy, the Pats will win a low-scoring battle to the end: 17-14.

NFC - Panthers win a close one at Philly: 23-21.

Super Bowl - The AFC winner will crush the NFC winner no matter what.

Happy New Year!

Super Bowl prediction: Patriots vs. Packers. Pats by 14.