My Opinion On Gay Marriage

The proposed Constitutional Amendment to ban it won't pass. There isn't presently enough support for it. 67% of both the House and Senate, plus ratification in 38 states, is no easy task to accomplish.

Bush would be better off encouraging and signing a federal law banning gay marriage. He could easily get majorities in both Houses for this, and that would reassure his conservative base in an election year.

Then, if the US Supreme Court ever dared to declare this federal law Unconstitutional, Bush may be able to ride the wave of populist outrage to quickly push an Amendment through.

But not now. If the Amendment is voted down, it will be a huge (and counter-productive) defeat for Bush. Gay voters who would normally support Bush will either stay at home or defect to the Democrat nominee. And the hopes of an Amendment to ban gay marriage will disappear.

In the long run, barring an Amendment, gay marriage will become law. The courts like the idea, as do younger voters. The only firewall is an Amendment. I support such an Amendment. Just not now...