BUSH AND GAYS

Bush came out the other day and supported amending the US Constitution to codify marriage as a contract between one man and one woman. I support the goal of this Amendment. But I oppose the actual Amendment, for these reasons:

- It won't pass

There is almost no chance of this Amendment being passed by 67% of BOTH Houses of Congress. The House of Representatives may give it the OK, but the Senate will almost certainly refuse it (more time between elections for Senators). And even if the Senate supports it, it will take a long time to get the needed 38 states to sign on (well after the 2004 election is held). In the meanwhile, the press will paint Bush as an intolerant bigot who is pandering to his base in a desperate attempt to win the re-election his father could not gain.

- Bush Loses Gay Votes

Gays probably make up about 5% of the voting population. I cannot imagine too many of them voting for him after he supports something they oppose so strongly. While most of them would not have voted for him in the first place, some would have. They won't now. In a close election (like 2004 is shaping up to be), losing the support of "swing" voters (pardon the pun) is nothing to sneeze at...

- The Religious Right

These folks will almost certainly commit numerous gaffes over the next 8 months or so, forcing Bush to either support their comments or distance himself from them. It's a no win for the Prez. If he distances himself from their comments, he will lose support from his base. If he supports their statements, he will lose support from needed independents. Kerry can continue to oppose the Amendment while saying he "personally" thinks marriage should be between a man and a woman. Bush will end up on the firing line, not Kerry.

Things are looking rough for Bush in November. Kerry has plenty of weaknesses, but the media seem to ignore many of them. Bush's main hope rests with Nader. If Nader stays in the race until Election Day, Bush will probably win. But I suspect a last minute pull-out by Nader (late October?), in which he endorses Kerry. This will do nothing but harm Bush.

Right now, I put the race at 50-50. If Edwards or Dean were the nominee, I might not be so concerned. But Kerry completely sickens me. Physicially. He must be stopped before he becomes President. We must support Bush, warts and all. If not, we risk horrors over the next 4 years that are unspeakable (namely, seeing that phony New England bastard on the television every single day).