Insight

First, read this.

Important points:

Arizona is leaning Kerry. Bush must stress his support for a drug entitlement here. That could be the deciding factor in a close race in a state with lots of old people.

California is looking like Kerry territory. Governor Arnold needs to get out in front and boost Bush if there is any hope of a Bush win in this Electoral College vote-rich state. Otherwise, it's a done deal for Kerry.

Florida: Bush needs to win this. He's currently behind, but the political machinery in this state is in his favor (his brother is Governor). Jewish voters are important in this state, and I suspect they will be more likely to vote for Bush in 2004 than they were in 2000. No recount here. Hopefully...

Michigan: If Kerry chooses Gephardt as his running mate, Michigan is in the bag for the Dems. But if he chooses someone else, I suspect a close match-up. I still think Kerry gets the Electoral College votes, though.

Nevada: Bush must win here. His support for placing nuclear waste inside Yucca Mountain won't help. Kerry might pick this one off.

New Hampshire: Kerry will win. The Democrats have managed to inflame the populace here, and I expect they will carry the day in November.

Ohio: Bush is currently down. He must win this state. He and Rove know this. They will put all the needed resources into capturing Ohio in 2004, and they will be successful.

PA: This state went Gore in 2000. It would help Bush a great deal in 2004 if he can win it. And he can, despite the Democrat Party being in control. Focus some ads here, and it's a huge pick-up for Bush in 2004.

It's not listed, but I suspect NY is also in play in 2004. A good convention there could win Bush the Empire State. And the election.